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    Real Estate Market Readjustment and Control: Restrictive Tendency or Policy Signal

    Hou Sijie;Geng Chun;Liu Yi;National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Center for China Fiscal Development and Collaborative Innovation, Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics, Peking University;  
    This essay makes a detailed analysis of 207 manually-sorted items of 26 sample cities from 2007 to 2017 concerning the policy for the real estate readjustment and control in purchase restriction, mortgage limitation and tax regulation. The essay also studies the influence made by various policies upon the real estate market and their functional mechanisms, combined with the monthly transaction data of newly-built residential housing from China Real Estate Index System. The study shows that these policies have made a comparatively great effect on the residential property transaction volume and further on the size of real estate market, with relatively limited effect on the readjustment and control of the residential property prices. The effect of these policies has not been confined to their own regulations and restrictions. The signal released by these policies has produced its influence upon the real estate market as expected, which is an important mechanism for these policies to take effect. For instance, a smaller regulation of deed tax rate may greatly decreased the sale of residential housing. The authors of this essay hold that when the concerning polices are made, more importance should be attached to the intended impact caused by the signal effect upon the property market entity, besides the contents of the policies themselves. To develop the real estate market in a healthy way, such a policy as the levy of vacancy tax which releases the signal that"houses are used for habitation, not for speculation", is appropriate as a readjustment-and-control measure for the real estate market.
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